Is Iran a threat? [Bonus Episode]

When Iran launched its most recent strike against Israel—and actually succeeded—many people saw it as just another headline in a region plagued by conflict. But for those of us who work in national security or study geopolitical strategy, it wasn’t just news. It was a major shift.

Shortly after that attack, the United States conducted targeted airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites. These weren’t symbolic—they were preemptive. Tactical. Meant to send a message. But as the U.S. Intelligence Community’s 2025 Annual Threat Assessment makes painfully clear, Iran is playing a long game, and they’re not bluffing.

A Regional Power with Global Intentions

The report outlines Iran’s strategic vision clearly: leverage its missile arsenal, grow its nuclear program, and deepen ties with adversaries of the United States to reshape the Middle East and expand global influence. Tehran remains committed to removing U.S. presence from the region, while funding a shadow network of militant proxies under its “Axis of Resistance” umbrella (p. 23).

Even as Iran faces the collapse of long-time allies like Syria’s Assad regime and a weakened Hizballah, its ambitions haven’t faded. Instead, the regime is recalibrating, shifting its strategy toward asymmetric warfare and cyber operations. Internally, Iran is stretched thin—but outwardly, it’s sharpening every weapon it has.

Proxy Warfare and Direct U.S. Threats

According to the assessment, Iran continues to support militant groups capable of attacking U.S. interests and personnel across the Middle East and beyond. That includes Huthis targeting shipping lanes, Iraqi Shia militias firing on U.S. bases, and Hizballah, which still retains the capability to conduct operations globally—including inside the United States (p. 24).

This isn’t just speculative. The Intelligence Community confirms that Iran remains committed to targeting current and former U.S. officials involved in the 2020 killing of IRGC Qods Force Commander Qasem Soleimani. This includes efforts to develop surrogate networks inside the U.S.—a chilling reminder that Tehran’s reach isn’t limited to the battlefield (p. 23).

Cyber Operations and Influence Campaigns

The threat extends beyond physical attacks. Iran has invested heavily in cyber capabilities and is now considered a major threat to U.S. networks and critical infrastructure. The regime blends cyber intrusions with information warfare—using influence operations to destabilize Western societies and interfere in domestic politics (p. 26).

In 2024, IRGC operatives even compromised an email account linked to a former U.S. presidential campaign and attempted to manipulate journalists into releasing stolen information. It was a textbook hybrid warfare move—part hack, part spin, all intended to erode public trust and influence political outcomes (p. 26).

The Nuclear Wildcard

While U.S. intelligence assesses that Iran is not currently building a nuclear weapon, that line is beginning to blur. For the first time in years, Iranian leadership has openly debated the idea of nuclear armament—a significant departure from decades of taboo on the subject. Khamenei hasn’t reauthorized a weapons program, but pressure from within is building (p. 26).

Iran is also believed to be conducting research into chemical and biological weapons, exploring compounds that can sedate, confuse, or kill. These programs are more shadowy, but no less dangerous (p. 26).

Fragile Inside, Dangerous Outside

One of the most sobering insights in the report is the idea that Iran’s internal instability may actually increase its external aggression. Facing economic collapse, societal unrest, and growing protests—especially after the widespread uprisings in 2022 and 2023—Iran’s leadership may see confrontation with the U.S. and Israel as a way to distract or consolidate domestic power (p. 26).

And it’s working with new partners to do it. Iran’s ties with Russia have deepened, including drone support in Ukraine. China continues to prop up the Iranian economy. Meanwhile, Tehran is expanding its footprint in Africa and the Global South, creating a diplomatic shield against U.S.-led pressure campaigns (p. 23).

Conclusion: This Is Not Contained

Iran is no longer operating in the shadows. Its intentions are clear. Its alliances are growing. And its capabilities—while not perfect—are enough to cause real damage. As the 2025 Annual Threat Assessment makes clear, we are facing a nation that is destabilized at home, but emboldened abroad.

If you’re watching the headlines and wondering what’s next, the answer isn’t comforting. Whether through drones over Israel, cyber attacks on U.S. servers, or influence operations in our political system—Iran is already in motion.

And the threat? It’s not future tense. It’s right now.

Source: Office of the Director of National Intelligence. (2025). Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Retrieved from DNI.gov. Page references: pp. 23–26.